Indicator at 58: Our Barclays Business Jet Indicator (BBJI) came in at 58, 18% higher from September and its highest level since late 2018, indicative of improving market conditions. Our straight up measure of overall business conditions came through at 5.9 (0-10 scale), 10% higher from September and reflective of a better than normal market.

COVID-19 impact: Over the short term, 56% of respondents expect higher demand (including 6% that expect much higher demand) on COVID-19 impact. Longer term, 71% of respondents (similar to our September survey) see higher demand on COVID-19 impact.

Election impact: Nearly half of respondents believe the Biden Administration will be negative for bizjet demand while 15% see it as positive, although nearly 40% see no impact at all.

Respondent commentary (pgs 13-14): Overall commentary reflects strong Q4 demand driven by heightened year-end tax activity post the election along with ongoing COVID-19 concerns that has driven an increasing number of first time buyers. Used market activity continues to be seen stronger as compared to new and small/midsize markets seen stronger as compared to large.

View on market: We forecast new delivery volumes rebounding slightly (<10%) to ~500 in 2021, albeit still ~30% lower from 2019, driven by improvement in small/mid while large lags.

Raising price target on TXT: Our revised $52 price target reflects a more positive view of the small/mid market and incorporates a blend of 9x EBITDA and 15x FCF/sh on our 2023 estimates, discounted back one year. Our prior $37 price target reflected a blend of 9x EBITDA and 8.0% through-cycle FCF yield (or 12x FCF/sh) on our 2022 estimates, discounted back a year.