Survey index improves 19% off November low; we forecast flattish deliveries in 2020 Indicator at 47: our Barclays business jet indicator (BBJI) came in at 47 in January, 19% Higher than our prior survey in November (39). Each cabin class index improved with Our small⁄mid cabin indices higher than large. Even so, our composite index below 50 Continues to indicate slightly weaker market conditions. Our straight up measure of Overall business conditions also improved to 6.0 (0-10 Scale), although this remains Nearly 15% off its late 2018 high. 

Election year overhang: respondents are cautious on the outlook with 55% of Respondents expecting the upcoming U.S. Presidential election cycle to overhang the Market. See pages 13-15 for additional commentary from industry professionals, who Generally noted relatively strong Q4 activity, but continued pricing declines and Heightened uncertainty for the market in 2020. 

Component scores: all components (customer interest, pricing, 12-month outlook, inventory level, willingness to increase inventory) of our BBJI came in well above our prior survey. However, our pricing score remained significantly below 50, indicating weaker pricing continues. Meanwhile our customer interest and inventory scores Continue to hold in best, near 50, indicating stable customer interest and normal used inventory levels. 

View on market: given deterioration in our survey indicator, used inventory levels and Bizjet utilization we forecast flattish industry deliveries in 2020 (despite new product). However, we think GD/TXT reflect this trading at ~30% discounts to market, the Bottom end of their historical ranges, on our below consensus 2020 EPS estimates. Fie Have reduced our Q4 2019 EPS estimate for TXT to $1.07 From $1.11 (Full year to $3.70 From $3.75) To reflect lower Cessna deliveries.