Indicator at 49: Our Barclays Business Jet Indicator (BBJI) came in at 49, 16% higher from July and substantially higher from its March low (20), now indicative of roughly stable market conditions. By cabin, our small cabin index increased 23% to 49, midsize 14% to 50 and large 2% to 45. Our straight up measure of overall business conditions came through at 5.4 (0-10 scale), 17% higher than July and ~85% higher than March. 

COVID-19 impact: Over the next 3-6 months, 58% of respondents expect higher demand (including 3% that expect much higher demand). Longer-term, 70% of respondents (similar to our July survey) see higher demand on COVID-19 impact. Respondent commentary (pgs 11-12) reflects relatively strong customer interest as an increasing number of first time buyers on COVID concerns is partially offset by lack of corporate demand given weak economic conditions and travel restrictions. Used market seen better as compared to new and small/midsize cabin markets seen better as compared to large. 

Component scores: Most of our individual survey component scores improved, including pricing (+42%), customer interest (+26%), 12-month outlook (+6%) and willingness to increase inventory (+4%) with customer interest and outlook solidly in positive territory. Our inventory score was unchanged and continues to reflects higher than normal overall inventory levels while young used inventories are seen lower than normal. 

View on market: We forecast industry deliveries falling below 500 in 2020, ~30% lower from 2019 and bottoming at ~2.6% of installed base, as compared to 3-4% since the GFC. We have EW ratings on BBD and TXT and an OW rating on GD.