We estimate total preowned inventory now ~5% of installed base (down 7% sequentially), representing another new low and 49% below on an absolute basis over the last year, compared to long-term average at ~12% of fleet. We estimate young preowned inventory (0-10 years old) now ~3% of installed base (down 8% sequentially), down ~60% on absolute basis over the last year, compared to long-term average at 8% of fleet.

Young inventory by cabin class: We estimate small, midsize, and large cabin young preowned inventory are near lows as percentage of installed base. Small cabin inventory now 2% of installed base (long-term average ~8% of fleet), midsize cabin 2% (long-term average ~8% of fleet), and large cabin 4% (long-term average ~7% of fleet).

Young inventory by region: Young preowned inventory (0-10) in the two largest markets in North America and Europe has fallen back to lows at ~2% and ~3% of installed base, respectively.

Pricing improves: We estimate that overall preowned pricing has increased by ~16% over the last 12-18 months, led by large cabin.

Fleet age: We estimate the average age of the installed base has grown to >16 years as compared to 14 years post the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) with ~65% of the fleet >10 years old now as compared to <50% prior.

View on market: We forecast new industry delivery levels in 2022-23 modestly above pre pandemic levels from 2019 that only representing 3-4% of the installed fleet. We believe there could be much more upside than this, well above 2019 delivery levels, given minimal young preowned inventory along with an older installed base that should yield significant replacement demand. However, we believe a more significant recovery in corporate demand than at current is necessary to drive production volumes well above 2019 levels.