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Jet sales stable, helicopter sales take off in latest GAMA market update

Josh Coffman, GlobalAir.com

There is a growing buzz in the helicopter sales market, while business jet sales remain at a steady flight level. Those observations are among the conclusions found in the General Aviation Aircraft Shipment and Billing Report released by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) for the second quarter of 2023, released on Tuesday.

GAMA is an international trade association representing over 100 of the world’s leading manufacturers of general aviation airplanes and rotorcraft, engines, avionics, components and related services.

The report, based on a comparison with the same period in the previous year, indicates positive growth in various segments of the general aviation aircraft manufacturing sector.

Piston airplanes showed an increase of 11.4%, with a total of 713 units delivered. Turboprops experienced a more pronounced rise, registering a 17.4% increase and totaling 290 units. Meanwhile, business jets displayed a modest growth of 2.4%, with 296 units being delivered.

The overall value of aircraft shipments also saw an incremental gain, with the second quarter of 2023 witnessing a cumulative value of $9.2 billion in airplane deliveries—an increase of 1.4% from the previous year.

GAMA President and CEO Pete Bunce expressed measured optimism in light of these findings.

"The growth of our industry remains strong as manufacturers continue to deliver and take orders for new aircraft," he said. In a nod to the regulatory landscape, he emphasized the significance of stability, accountability, and a clear regulatory direction, especially within the United States.

Bunce underscored the importance of the FAA's role in this period of transformation for the aviation sector, highlighting the need for effective leadership. He also commended the bipartisan cooperation observed during the legislative process and expressed hope for the continued momentum in finalizing the FAA reauthorization bill. This, he noted, would enhance the agency's ability to ensure safety, drive innovation, and facilitate efficient regulatory procedures that support global aerospace leadership.

The report also shed light on the helicopter segment, which demonstrated noticeable growth compared to the latter half of 2022. Piston helicopter deliveries witnessed a robust increase of 28.7%, with 112 units delivered. Meanwhile, turbine helicopter deliveries recorded a substantial growth of 30.4%, with 339 units delivered. In terms of value, helicopter deliveries saw a collective increase of 29.9%, amounting to $1.9 billion.

The GAMA report comes on the heels of Global Jet Capital’s assessment of the second quarter and first half of the year.

Jefferies: Used Bizjet Inventory Rises Along with Pricing

The number of business jets available on the market is continuing to slowly increase, according to the latest report from Jefferies Equity Research. The 922 available aircraft this month represented a 59 percent rise from the near-record lows seen a year ago, with inventory now accounting for 3.6 percent of the total fleet, including all models and vintages.

According to Jefferies’ analysts, that inventory is still well below the five-year average of 5.6 percent. For aircraft currently in production or out of production for less than seven years, inventory increased by 93 percent year-over-year, standing at 2.9 percent of that segment.

While the number of aircraft on market has increased, so too has the pricing in many cases. The report also noted that average asking prices rose 15 percent from a year ago across most manufacturers, led by Cessna and Embraer (+23 percent). Bombardier (+20 percent), and Dassault Falcon (+14 percent).

Among the major five OEMs, only Gulfstream saw a drop in asking prices, which fell 6 percent. The report stated there were 17 G650s for sale with an average price of $49.4 million, a slight decline from the $51.5 million average last year. For the G550, inventory jumped from three in 2022 to 18 this year, or nearly 3 percent of the model produced, with the average list price down by 32 percent year-over-year.

Bizjet Survey Index Drops Further 7%, Down 50% from High, Foreshadows Slowdown in Manufacturers’ New Order Activity

Indicator at 42: Our Barclays Business Jet Indicator (BBJI) decreased 7% from January, lowest since July 2020, indicative of worsening market conditions. Our survey index has now dropped six consecutive times, declining ~50% from its late 2021 high. Our straight up measure of overall business conditions came in at 6.1 (0-10 scale), also 7% lower from January and down 23% from late 2021 peak, albeit indicative of a still strong market on an absolute basis.
 
View on market: We believe the decline in our survey index foreshadows a slowing in new order activity for the manufacturers, although we expect extended backlogs (two- to-three years) will allow for further delivery growth over the next few years. We forecast new industry deliveries increasing a further ~30% through 2025 to 10-15% above prepandemic levels. This level would still only equate to new deliveries equivalent to 3- 4% of the installed base.
 
Index components: The decline in our index reflects a 40% decrease in pricing and 4% decrease in customer interest, partially offset by a 15% increase in willingness to increase inventory and an 11% increase in 12-month outlook.
 
Stock market/higher interest rates: 89% of respondents now indicate a negative impact on business activity as a result of the lower stock market/higher interest rates, higher as compared to 72% in January. Meanwhile 94% expect a negative impact on business activity in the future as a result of the lower stock market/higher interest rates.
 
Production rates: When asked about the appropriate level of future annual production from the manufacturers, 56% of respondents indicate 600-700 aircraft per year, in a similar range to slightly higher than pre pandemic levels.
 
Respondent commentary (pgs 13-15): Survey participants highlighted slowing market activity amid increased uncertainty on higher interest rates, banking crisis and recession fears. Market characterized by increased buyer hesitancy, slowing charter activity, higher preowned inventory available for sale and lower pricing.