No glut in available inventory—which had been hovering between 10.1 and 10.3 percent in pre-COVID months—occurred, either: 10.7 percent of the business jet fleet (2,264 aircraft) were for sale at August’s end. In contrast, in the wake of the 2008 market meltdown, inventory bloated from similar pre-crisis levels to some 18 percent of the fleet.

The passing decade has also brought acceptance that—irrational exuberance aside—preowned aircraft, like other capital equipment, declines in value. That lesson was made all the more brutal by the annual value declines of some 20 to 25 percent that many models endured in the immediate post-crash years. Though today’s value declines are greater than those in pre-crash times, the intervening shock made drops of recent years easier to plan for and bear.

WHY THE PREOWNED JET MARKET MIGHT BE STRONGER AFTER COVID

Meanwhile, a possible inventory shortage looms. Aircraft changing hands are getting older. The composite profile of a preowned business jet sold in the first half of 2019 was a 2004 model priced at $4.4 million; for the first half of this year, the aircraft was a 2002 vintage, sold for $3.7 million, according to JetNet. (The data service derived the figures from sales of the 236 business jet models it tracks.)

With a shortage of newer pedigrees, older airframes including early Citations, Hawker 700/800s, Bombardier Challengers, and Falcons and Gulfstreams into the vintage 900 and GIV series remain in demand, if they’ve been well maintained, refurbished, and upgraded, and are cosmetically appealing. Concurrently, lesser examples of these same models are being sold for the value of salvageable resale parts.

“A turnkey older business jet ready for operations will attract a substantial number of [cash] buyers,” says Jason Zilberbrand, president of aircraft valuation and appraisal service Vref.

Yet even as demand for late-model preowned aircraft grows, new business jet shipments will shrink about 22 to 25 percent this year, JetNet forecasts. A decline in new aircraft sales, of course, creates more squeeze in the preowned market.

“The largest segment of buyers for business jets in the U.S. is those looking for a sub-$5 million aircraft that can seat eight and travel over 2,500 nautical miles,” Zilberbrand says. “Until one of the manufacturers can build a midsize jet that doesn't breach the $15 million sales price, the preowned market will continue to attract buyers.”