We estimate total preowned inventory now ~5% of installed base (down 7% sequentially), representing another new low and 49% below on an absolute basis over the last year, compared to long-term average at ~12% of fleet. We estimate young preowned inventory (0-10 years old) now ~3% of installed base (down 8% sequentially), down ~60% on absolute basis over the last year, compared to long-term average at 8% of fleet.

Young inventory by cabin class: We estimate small, midsize, and large cabin young preowned inventory are near lows as percentage of installed base. Small cabin inventory now 2% of installed base (long-term average ~8% of fleet), midsize cabin 2% (long-term average ~8% of fleet), and large cabin 4% (long-term average ~7% of fleet).

Young inventory by region: Young preowned inventory (0-10) in the two largest markets in North America and Europe has fallen back to lows at ~2% and ~3% of installed base, respectively.

Pricing improves: We estimate that overall preowned pricing has increased by ~16% over the last 12-18 months, led by large cabin.

Fleet age: We estimate the average age of the installed base has grown to >16 years as compared to 14 years post the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) with ~65% of the fleet >10 years old now as compared to <50% prior.

View on market: We forecast new industry delivery levels in 2022-23 modestly above pre pandemic levels from 2019 that only representing 3-4% of the installed fleet. We believe there could be much more upside than this, well above 2019 delivery levels, given minimal young preowned inventory along with an older installed base that should yield significant replacement demand. However, we believe a more significant recovery in corporate demand than at current is necessary to drive production volumes well above 2019 levels.

There were 159 business jet aircraft added to the fleet since March, though some operators have reported that owners are instructing them to fly less charter to preserve the crews and aircraft for personal use. 

The Part 135 volume is up just over 500 flights in the past two weeks, which is almost exactly the same increase in week-over-week volume from 2019. 

The Part 91 trend is also following suit with a similar week-over-week increase. 

Large cabin aircraft are now within 1.6% of the hours they flew year to date in 2019 and are on track to beat that number before the end of the year. Every other size class has been well ahead of 2019 for some time. Traffic in Teterboro is tracking with 2019 volumes at this point. We are also seeing higher volumes at other big city airports, indicating the business travel is a bigger portion of the flying than it has been earlier in the year.

There is no question that summer is over with many of the summer leisure destinations reporting big drops in volume with West Hampton being no exception. Do note that volume for FOK is still 55% above 2019 however.One exception to the traditional seasonal downturn is Hilton Head, which spiked in the past week and is trending 48% above 2019 volumes for the year to date.

Despite -- or, perhaps, because -- Covid-19 numbers ratcheted up in the late summer, private flying is more popular than ever in North America.

According to the private aviation industry data tracker Argus, August saw the second-most private flight activity ever over the continent, behind only July. And the nearly 300,000 private flights for that month was 10% higher than for the same month in 2019. Argus also estimates that the number of private flight operations in North American will be 7% higher this month than in September of 2019.

The summer's record numbers were being driven by leisure flyers rather than by businesses, said Travis Kuhn, vice president of market intelligence for Argus. He noted that there was a cooling of activity about the third week of August, which is consistent with the return of children to school. "That's what dropped August from beating July. I tie that directly to leisure," Kuhn said.

Data from Tuvoli, a payment provider in the private air charter industry, shows that many second-home and resort markets saw a particularly strong surge in private flight activity in August. As reported by the newsletter Private Jet Card Comparisons, private flights to Aspen, Colo., were up an extraordinary 111% this August compared with August 2019. Other ritzy destinations also saw big leaps. For example, Jackson Hole, Wyo., saw a 61% jump in private flight activity compared with August 2019. In Naples, Fla., the increase was 33%. The jump in Napa, Calif., was 77%. And in the golfing destination of Bandon, Ore., the boost was 75%.

Since the onset of the pandemic, the private flying industry has fared better than commercial operators, due largely to the extra space afforded on private flights as well as the relatively few people flyers must encounter at private terminals compared with commercial airports.

Poor operating performances by commercial carriers this summer has also spurred interest in private flying, said Private Jet Card Comparisons publisher Doug Gollan. So has the ongoing reduction in airline connectivity.

Though overall numbers for the North American private aviation industry were down in 2020 compared with 2019, operators began reporting a surge in interest from new customers from the beginning of the pandemic. Now those new customers are a major driver of record flight activity. For example, membership in the private airline Wheels Up was up 47% year over year at the close of the June quarter, the company reported in an earnings release. Gollan said that approximately 50% of his subscribers are new since the pandemic began. By comparison, he estimated that going into March 2020, approximately 10% of his subscribers had signed up in the previous 18 months.  "I am still getting an influx of people who hadn't flown privately before the pandemic. I haven't seen a let up," he said. 

Such unprecedented interest in private aviation presents opportunities for travel advisors. But the surging demand is also causing price increases and leading to aircraft scarcity in some markets during peak periods.

"If travel agents are talking to their clients about booking private flights for the holidays, they need to secure them soon," Gollan suggested. He said it is important for travel advisors to keep in mind that departures often aren't guaranteed in the charter industry. Sometimes, flights must be rebid based upon what aircraft is available as a replacement.

So, whether they are working with a charter broker or directly with an operator, agents need to know whether any protection is in place.  "What's the backup plan? Will you be able to get a plane quickly? Contractually, if the plane is not available, how is that handled?" Gollan said.