We're closing in on Christmas and volume remains strong. In fact, month-to-date we are showing 9,710 hours more than for the same two weeks in 2019, which translates into a 14.6% increase year over year. 

We are seeing exceptionally strong demand in the Part 91 world as well with average volumes getting close to 10,000 hours per day. Month to date, the non-commercial business flying is up almost 22% and nearly 25,000 more hours over the past two weeks than in 2019.

In the last update we saw Teterboro close to 2019 volumes. Now we have moved past that into positive territory for the month. As you can see in the chart below, we show MTD volume that is 5.3% above 2019 and 14.6% more activity this past week than the same week in 2019.

With this steady stream of additional demand, I get asked if there is anywhere not seeing a positive impact. There are still areas that are not catching up to 2019 volume levels. One of these is Albany, NY, which is 21.3% below 2019 year-to-date and 26.6% below for the month of December.

Another example, would be Pioria, IL where the YoY trend is down 9.6% and the month to date is down 4.7%. I will say that it is getting harder to find examples like these, but there are still areas that have not seen private travel return to pre-pandemic levels.

We estimate total preowned inventory now ~5% of installed base (down 7% sequentially), representing another new low and 49% below on an absolute basis over the last year, compared to long-term average at ~12% of fleet. We estimate young preowned inventory (0-10 years old) now ~3% of installed base (down 8% sequentially), down ~60% on absolute basis over the last year, compared to long-term average at 8% of fleet.

Young inventory by cabin class: We estimate small, midsize, and large cabin young preowned inventory are near lows as percentage of installed base. Small cabin inventory now 2% of installed base (long-term average ~8% of fleet), midsize cabin 2% (long-term average ~8% of fleet), and large cabin 4% (long-term average ~7% of fleet).

Young inventory by region: Young preowned inventory (0-10) in the two largest markets in North America and Europe has fallen back to lows at ~2% and ~3% of installed base, respectively.

Pricing improves: We estimate that overall preowned pricing has increased by ~16% over the last 12-18 months, led by large cabin.

Fleet age: We estimate the average age of the installed base has grown to >16 years as compared to 14 years post the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) with ~65% of the fleet >10 years old now as compared to <50% prior.

View on market: We forecast new industry delivery levels in 2022-23 modestly above pre pandemic levels from 2019 that only representing 3-4% of the installed fleet. We believe there could be much more upside than this, well above 2019 delivery levels, given minimal young preowned inventory along with an older installed base that should yield significant replacement demand. However, we believe a more significant recovery in corporate demand than at current is necessary to drive production volumes well above 2019 levels.

There were 159 business jet aircraft added to the fleet since March, though some operators have reported that owners are instructing them to fly less charter to preserve the crews and aircraft for personal use. 

The Part 135 volume is up just over 500 flights in the past two weeks, which is almost exactly the same increase in week-over-week volume from 2019. 

The Part 91 trend is also following suit with a similar week-over-week increase. 

Large cabin aircraft are now within 1.6% of the hours they flew year to date in 2019 and are on track to beat that number before the end of the year. Every other size class has been well ahead of 2019 for some time. Traffic in Teterboro is tracking with 2019 volumes at this point. We are also seeing higher volumes at other big city airports, indicating the business travel is a bigger portion of the flying than it has been earlier in the year.

There is no question that summer is over with many of the summer leisure destinations reporting big drops in volume with West Hampton being no exception. Do note that volume for FOK is still 55% above 2019 however.One exception to the traditional seasonal downturn is Hilton Head, which spiked in the past week and is trending 48% above 2019 volumes for the year to date.