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Popularity of Private Flying in North America Hits New Heights

Despite -- or, perhaps, because -- Covid-19 numbers ratcheted up in the late summer, private flying is more popular than ever in North America.

According to the private aviation industry data tracker Argus, August saw the second-most private flight activity ever over the continent, behind only July. And the nearly 300,000 private flights for that month was 10% higher than for the same month in 2019. Argus also estimates that the number of private flight operations in North American will be 7% higher this month than in September of 2019.

The summer's record numbers were being driven by leisure flyers rather than by businesses, said Travis Kuhn, vice president of market intelligence for Argus. He noted that there was a cooling of activity about the third week of August, which is consistent with the return of children to school. "That's what dropped August from beating July. I tie that directly to leisure," Kuhn said.

Data from Tuvoli, a payment provider in the private air charter industry, shows that many second-home and resort markets saw a particularly strong surge in private flight activity in August. As reported by the newsletter Private Jet Card Comparisons, private flights to Aspen, Colo., were up an extraordinary 111% this August compared with August 2019. Other ritzy destinations also saw big leaps. For example, Jackson Hole, Wyo., saw a 61% jump in private flight activity compared with August 2019. In Naples, Fla., the increase was 33%. The jump in Napa, Calif., was 77%. And in the golfing destination of Bandon, Ore., the boost was 75%.

Since the onset of the pandemic, the private flying industry has fared better than commercial operators, due largely to the extra space afforded on private flights as well as the relatively few people flyers must encounter at private terminals compared with commercial airports.

Poor operating performances by commercial carriers this summer has also spurred interest in private flying, said Private Jet Card Comparisons publisher Doug Gollan. So has the ongoing reduction in airline connectivity.

Though overall numbers for the North American private aviation industry were down in 2020 compared with 2019, operators began reporting a surge in interest from new customers from the beginning of the pandemic. Now those new customers are a major driver of record flight activity. For example, membership in the private airline Wheels Up was up 47% year over year at the close of the June quarter, the company reported in an earnings release. Gollan said that approximately 50% of his subscribers are new since the pandemic began. By comparison, he estimated that going into March 2020, approximately 10% of his subscribers had signed up in the previous 18 months.  "I am still getting an influx of people who hadn't flown privately before the pandemic. I haven't seen a let up," he said. 

Such unprecedented interest in private aviation presents opportunities for travel advisors. But the surging demand is also causing price increases and leading to aircraft scarcity in some markets during peak periods.

"If travel agents are talking to their clients about booking private flights for the holidays, they need to secure them soon," Gollan suggested. He said it is important for travel advisors to keep in mind that departures often aren't guaranteed in the charter industry. Sometimes, flights must be rebid based upon what aircraft is available as a replacement.

So, whether they are working with a charter broker or directly with an operator, agents need to know whether any protection is in place.  "What's the backup plan? Will you be able to get a plane quickly? Contractually, if the plane is not available, how is that handled?" Gollan said. 

Private Aviation Set To Emerge ‘5-To-10%’ Bigger Post-Covid

Private aviation is set to emerge from the Covid-era, whenever it ends, as much as 10 percent larger than it was before the virus, according to new research.

The industry has been a bright spot in the broader travel industry since May 2020 when U.S. private jet flights started their recovery. In fact, last month was the busiest for private flights since October 2007. July 1 had the most private flights – 12,345 – since March 20, 2008, according to Argus TraqPak.

Private aviation is reaching record levels. One report suggests the industry could be 10% larger ... “Business aviation continues to show that we are well past recovery mode and into growth mode…We are looking at an industry that is five percent to 10 percent larger post-pandemic than it was pre-pandemic,” says Travis Kuhn, vice president of market intelligence at Argus International.

WingX, another aviation research firm, reports U.S. private jet flights were up 30% versus the first 26 days of July 2019. There are no signs of demand ebbing. TraqPak analysts estimate flight activity from July through December will increase 32.7% over the same period in 2020 and 9.9% over 2019. August and October are projected to top 300,000 private aviation flights during each month. That hasn’t happened since January 2007, according to Argus. What’s more, much of the demand is coming on short notice. The percentage of charter trips being requested within four days of departure jumped 26% to 43% this month, according to Avinode, an online directory brokers use to source flights for clients.

It’s not just flying that’s surging. Buying jets is on the rise as well. Members of the International Aircraft Dealers Association reported a 52% increase in second quarter sales. In total, its brokers sold 320 preowned private jets in the second quarter of 2021 compared to 211 in the first three months of 2021. IADA Executive Director Wayne Starling says supply of desirable aircraft for sale is the biggest concern. “We have buyers with funds to purchase, but demand for late model aircraft with attractive configurations exceeds supply, which could increase pressure on prices and lengthen transactions.”

Despite the pandemic, members racked up $11.3 billion in transactions in the 12 months through June. Average sale price was $8.3 million. A recent report by Global Jet Capital forecasts $162.1 billion in new and used private jet sales through 2025, a compound annual growth rate of 7.4 percent. In announcing its second quarter results, Textron Aviation said it delivered 44 jets, up from 23 last year, and 33 turboprops, up from 15 last year. Backlog at the end of the second quarter was $2.7 billion. According to a Reuters report, the manufacturer’s CEO Scott Donnelly told analysts, higher demand for private flying “seems to be quite sustainable.”

Pre-Owned Business Jet Inventory Reaches New Lows, Data Shows

The number of pre-owned business jets on the market has reached the lowest level since records began in the 1980s, with 4.65% of the world’s fleet up for sale, according to a survey of jet brokers and research companies. 

In all, about 1,134 used jets are available, compared to 1,839 in June 2020, a decline of 38%. Multiple buyers and a shrinking inventory of available aircraft have made for a competitive market. 

“We recently tried to purchase a late-model Challenger 650 for a client, and at least six offers were made for this aircraft, which ended up trading close to its headline asking price,” a major industry broker says. “To say that the market is competitive at the moment is an understatement.”

The decline in inventory has been led by the U.S., which reopened faster than other parts of the world, he says, spurred by a desire to travel in an environment with a lower risk for COVID-19 transmission and a drop in airline service, bringing a large number of first-time buyers into the market. In addition, as inventory declined rapidly, aircraft owners are often holding onto their current aircraft as they struggle to find a replacement, further decreasing aircraft coming available for sale.

At the same time, a surging stock market and real estate market, historically “cheap debt due to government stimulus” and depreciation benefits on private jet purchases have removed many of the financial pressures some owners may have been under to sell their aircraft under more normal circumstances. It is also encouraging new buyers to act. 

Molly McMillin
Molly McMillin, a 25-year aviation journalist, is managing editor of business aviation for the Aviation Week Network and editor-in-chief of The Weekly of Business Aviation, an Aviation Week market intelligence report