Today you can’t pry private jets from owners’ hands despite crazy economic gyrations that would normally spook them into selling, and a business jet fleet that’s essentially been sitting idle awaiting lockdown orders to be lifted.

This is in stunning contrast to the financial crisis of 2007-2008 when business aircraft owners stampeded for the exits. Before that, 10%-12% of the fleet was typically for sale at any given time. As the floor of financial markets fell out, it quickly ballooned to 18%, meaning that nearly 1 in 5 of all the world’s jets had a for sale sign taped in their windshield.

Not so this time around. Despite stock markets again plunging due to the worldwide pandemic, the number of business jets on the used market have remained remarkably steady. According to private aircraft fleet statistic provider AMSTAT, roughly 9.8% of the world fleet was for sale pre-virus. Today, after more than a month of economic whipsawing and uncertainty, that number has blipped up to just 10.3% – effectively unchanged and still on the low end of used aircraft supply even in normal times.

This stark contrast in the number of aircraft for sale in each downturn comes with a few plausible explanations. First, the 2007-08 dip revealed a fragile financial system that sent irreparable shockwaves through markets, corporate balance sheets and personal portfolios. This was coupled with loose lending terms allowing aircraft to be purchased by those without solid finances to keep making payments. Add to that an economy that was already on a downward trajectory and owners could no longer afford or justify keeping the corporate jet.

This time around the situation is markedly different. The economy was going strong prior to the pandemic, lending standards were stricter, the stock market hasn’t continually free falled and there isn’t the fear of a banking collapse. This has given owners the fortitude to stand pat and look beyond the current environment to a presumably brighter financial future. But that’s not their only reason for not selling.

As air travel begins to more widely resume, those who can afford to avoid the public airport crowds and fly privately will do so. One typically travels on a private jet at most with a couple of people they know, handily beating the alternative of being trapped for hours in an airliner with multitudes of strangers of unknown health pedigrees.

For this reason, it’s assumed that the business aviation industry will recover more quickly than the airlines since those travelling on private aircraft will feel safer taking to the skies sooner. While new business jet sales aren’t expected to surge due to the large capital commitment, it’s likely charter and other non-ownership business models will see an uptick from well-heeled newcomers willing to pay a premium to avoid the airliner petri dish experience. While many will eventually return to scheduled airlines once the hysteria subsides, a few will remain in the folds of private aviation having sampled the wares.

Those who own jets now have the ability to travel in a proverbial plastic bubble, less exposed to airborne nasties to be endured by public air travelers for the foreseeable future. Aircraft owners will find a way to justify keeping these once discretionary assets for as long as they can, as they now view them to be just as valuable and coveted as that last package of toilet paper at the grocery store.

Those looking for silver linings in the dark clouds over business aviation this week found themselves squinting to see any. If the Covid-19 pandemic’s repercussions for the industry still seemed ambiguous at the end of last week, there is now little doubt that the sector’s engines are spooling down and the industry is bracing for a period of inactivity. The only remaining questions seem to be for how long this might last and whether it could prove to be more than just a temporary interruption to what until now has been a rising tide for business aviation.

For now, the prospect of restrictions on domestic U.S. flights seems, mercifully, to have been averted. But elsewhere, the past few days have brought more worrying signs, such as business aircraft factory closures at Bombardier and Embraer, on the heels of Textron’s earlier furlough announcement.

In the UK, Harrods Aviation announced the temporary closure of its FBOs at London Luton and Stansted Airports, and London City Airport has closed at least until the end of April. The British Business and General Aviation trade group on March 26 warned that by the end of the month the country’s entire business aviation fleet will likely be grounded.

More discouragingly, there are signs that Asia is bracing for a second wave of coronavirus cases and taking steps to block new sources of infection by further restricting travel from other countries. From March 26, the Chinese government was effectively closing its border to all foreign travelers, bringing the crisis full circle from early February when it was Chinese citizens who found themselves persona non grata in a world that then largely saw the outbreak as a local problem.

As demand for passenger repatriation flights began to tail off towards the end of this week—an activity complicated by the need to navigate tightening government restrictions—operators found themselves increasingly shifting to cargo-carrying roles and flights in support of emergency medical operations. Charter broker Chapman Freeborn yesterday reported a surge in demand for aircraft to move humanitarian cargo and medical supplies. However, according to the European Business Aviation Association, some were adversely impacted by overly-rigid interpretation of rules by some national authorities, even though these missions are permitted under most current travel bans.

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Demand for piston trainers driven by the world’s unquenchable thirst for new pilots drove deliveries to numbers not seen in a decade, the General Aviation Manufacturers Association announced February 19. Business jet sales also soared to a 10-year high.

GAMA President and CEO Pete Bunce has seen a few rough years since 2008, and appeared visibly enthusiastic about the 2019 market data presented during an hourlong State of the Industry event in Washington, D.C. The 16.4-percent increase in piston airplane deliveries and 15.1-percent increase in business jet deliveries each provided happy news to build on a message of the day that also included a new study on general aviation’s positive effect on the overall economy and jobs.

It also gave Bunce and GAMA Chairman David Paddock (the president of Jet Aviation), who tag-teamed delivering the briefing and leading subsequent discussions, some positive talking points to offset an 11.3-percent decline in turboprop sales (driven largely by reduced demand for aircraft used in agriculture and firefighting), and a much sharper decline in helicopter sales. Piston helicopter deliveries were down more than a third, and turbine helicopters posted an 8.3-percent decline from 2018 to 2019. Read More