Indicator at 49: Our Barclays Business Jet Indicator (BBJI) came in at 49, 16% higher from July and substantially higher from its March low (20), now indicative of roughly stable market conditions. By cabin, our small cabin index increased 23% to 49, midsize 14% to 50 and large 2% to 45. Our straight up measure of overall business conditions came through at 5.4 (0-10 scale), 17% higher than July and ~85% higher than March. 

COVID-19 impact: Over the next 3-6 months, 58% of respondents expect higher demand (including 3% that expect much higher demand). Longer-term, 70% of respondents (similar to our July survey) see higher demand on COVID-19 impact. Respondent commentary (pgs 11-12) reflects relatively strong customer interest as an increasing number of first time buyers on COVID concerns is partially offset by lack of corporate demand given weak economic conditions and travel restrictions. Used market seen better as compared to new and small/midsize cabin markets seen better as compared to large. 

Component scores: Most of our individual survey component scores improved, including pricing (+42%), customer interest (+26%), 12-month outlook (+6%) and willingness to increase inventory (+4%) with customer interest and outlook solidly in positive territory. Our inventory score was unchanged and continues to reflects higher than normal overall inventory levels while young used inventories are seen lower than normal. 

View on market: We forecast industry deliveries falling below 500 in 2020, ~30% lower from 2019 and bottoming at ~2.6% of installed base, as compared to 3-4% since the GFC. We have EW ratings on BBD and TXT and an OW rating on GD. 

This past week was another positive one for the charter market. Volume is up slightly week over week and is just below 2019 when comparing the data on a year-over-year basis. Companies that I talk to are busy, but there is general concern about the days ahead and that there are some signals that volume may get softer in the fall.

That said, it looks like there are some signs that New York City is starting open back up. If you look at the chart below you can see traffic increasing relative to last week and a prior year trend that had volume dropping over the same time period. The combined impact is a pretty noticeable positive trend. 



I thought it would be worth highlighting the difference between the East and West Coasts. While there is a slight week-over-week drop in volume for Van Nuys, the Los Angeles market has rebounded to a greater degree than we've seen in New York. When looking at KVNY in particular, the completion of a runway renovation project may also be helping the rebound. Note that month to date for Van Nuys, we're trending just 2.3% below 2020 compared with a 51.4 YOY decline for New York City.

“On Saturday, June 20, Business Aviation traffic surpassed 2019 numbers for the first time since the initial decline with 2.5% more flights than the same day last year. Weekday recovery still has ground to make up but continues to trend upward."

-Daniel Baker, CEO, FlightAware